The School of Odds
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Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-05-26 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 40.74%2.45fair odd
EV -0.194%
Edge -0.079%
Kelly -0.134%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.66%40.85%40.61%42.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.4545.45%43.47%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 59.26%1.69fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.978%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.74%59.15%59.39%60.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.611.6665.36%62.43%62.11%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 40.74%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 59.26%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.455. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.450, with an expected value of -0.194%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.194%E -0.079%K -0.134%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.59%E -2.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-26 08:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.194%E -0.079%K -0.134%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.59%E -2.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-26 08:50
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.23%E -0.930%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -3.40%E -2.09%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-26 08:40
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.23%E -0.930%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-26 08:50
FanDuel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -3.05%E -1.28%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 08:50
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -2.81%E -1.71%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-26 08:40
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.59%E -2.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-26 08:40
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-26 08:39
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-26 08:39
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 08:49
BetUS🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.49%E -2.37%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-26 08:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -5.49%E -2.37%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-26 08:50
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.59%E -2.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-25 22:10
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-25 10:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 08:39
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-26 08:50
ReBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-26 08:50
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-26 08:49
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-26 08:49
William Hill🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -7.12%E -3.12%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -1.62%E -0.978%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-26 06:30
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -7.53%E -3.32%K -5.93%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -2.81%E -1.71%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 08:09
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 08:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 08:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 08:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 08:09
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 08:10
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 08:10
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-26 08:40
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-25 22:20
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.59%E -2.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-26 08:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.59%E -2.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-26 08:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.59%E -2.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-26 08:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.98%EV -9.33%E -6.10%K -17.60%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-26 08:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.