The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 39.90%2.51fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.09%39.84%39.90%40.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.372.352.4442.92%42.13%42.55%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 60.10%1.66fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -4.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.59%60.16%60.10%60.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.581.6265.36%63.31%63.49%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 39.90%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 60.10%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -2.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV -2.64%E -1.08%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -3.24%E -2.01%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-11 06:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -3.44%E -1.42%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -2.64%E -1.63%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-11 03:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -3.44%E -1.42%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -2.64%E -1.63%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-11 03:44
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.24%E -1.77%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.04%E -3.19%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 08:54
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.24%E -1.77%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.04%E -3.19%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 08:54
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.24%E -1.77%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.45%E -4.84%K -13.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-10 22:59
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.40%EV -4.64%E -1.94%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.60%EV -2.64%E -1.63%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-10 10:25
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -8.05%E -5.26%K -15.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-10 23:04
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.44%E -2.79%K -7.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-10 11:55
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.04%E -3.19%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 08:05
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.64%E -3.59%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-10 15:58
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.64%E -3.59%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 08:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.64%E -3.59%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 08:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.64%E -3.59%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 08:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.64%E -3.59%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 08:05
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.64%E -3.59%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 08:04
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.23%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.24%E -4.00%K -11.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-11 08:34
MyBookie.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -7.03%E -3.02%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -5.04%E -3.19%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-10 09:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.