The School of Odds
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Saitama Seibu Lions v Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 05:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saitama Seibu Lions (Local)

Prediction 45.95%2.18fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%46.01%45.91%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.042.022.1553.19%49.09%49.50%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Visit)

Prediction 54.05%1.85fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.38%53.99%54.09%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.751.8061.73%57.42%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saitama Seibu Lions (Local): 45.95%; Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Visit): 54.05%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.21%E -0.562%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-11 04:55
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%EV -2.13%E -0.999%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34%EV -3.25%E -1.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-11 04:50
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -3.79%E -2.13%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-11 04:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.33%E -2.45%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:00
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 04:55
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 04:40
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 04:40
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 04:55
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.57%E -4.43%K -10.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -8.65%E -5.12%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 04:54
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.43%E -2.13%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 03:19
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.80%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 04:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.80%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:00
ReBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -5.80%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.57%E -4.43%K -10.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 04:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.26%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 13:59
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -7.18%E -3.56%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.33%E -2.45%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 04:55
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -7.18%E -3.56%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.33%E -2.45%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 04:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -7.18%E -3.56%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.33%E -2.45%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 04:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -7.18%E -3.56%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.33%E -2.45%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 04:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -7.18%E -3.56%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.33%E -2.45%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 04:55
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -7.18%E -3.56%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.33%E -2.45%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 04:55
BetUS🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.68%EV -7.64%E -3.80%K -7.57%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.32%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 04:55
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.49%E -3.75%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.49%E -3.75%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.49%E -3.75%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.49%E -3.75%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 19:05
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.57%E -4.43%K -10.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 04:55
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.57%E -4.43%K -10.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 14:10
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -9.02%E -4.56%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -2.71%E -1.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 00:29
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.40%E -5.33%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 00:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.63%EV -12.70%E -6.68%K -14.11%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.37%EV -10.28%E -6.19%K -15.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-11 04:32
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.29%EV -13.62%E -7.24%K -15.47%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.71%EV -12.44%E -7.68%K -20.06%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-11 04:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.