The School of Odds
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Orix Buffaloes v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-06-09 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orix Buffaloes (Local)

Prediction 54.69%1.83fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%54.70%54.59%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.721.711.7860.98%58.17%58.48%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 45.31%2.21fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.30%45.41%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.082.102.1552.08%48.00%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orix Buffaloes (Local): 54.69%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 45.31%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -2.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -2.66%E -1.49%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -3.03%E -1.41%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-09 08:40
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%EV -3.21%E -1.81%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-09 08:39
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.21%E -1.81%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-08 15:19
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.21%E -1.81%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.37%E -4.69%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-09 08:49
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-08 15:29
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-08 15:19
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-08 18:59
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-08 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.85%E -2.79%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.57%E -1.20%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-09 07:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.85%E -2.79%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.57%E -1.20%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-09 07:29
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.85%E -2.79%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-08 17:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -4.85%E -2.79%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -6.20%E -2.99%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-08 15:18
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.85%E -2.79%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-08 15:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.85%E -2.79%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-08 15:18
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-08 15:18
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-08 15:19
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.49%E -3.79%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-08 15:29
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.49%E -3.79%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-08 20:29
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.49%E -3.79%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-09 08:09
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.49%E -3.79%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -9.37%E -4.69%K -9.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-08 18:09
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-09 08:49
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-09 08:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-09 08:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-09 08:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-09 08:49
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-09 08:49
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-08 20:29
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.37%E -4.69%K -9.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-09 04:29
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.58%E -4.49%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-09 08:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -8.13%E -4.84%K -11.95%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -10.28%E -5.19%K -10.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-09 08:49
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.68%E -5.19%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-08 15:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.68%E -5.19%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-08 15:18
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.68%E -5.19%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-08 15:18
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.93%EV -10.32%E -6.29%K -16.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.07%EV -13.00%E -6.77%K -14.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-06-09 08:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.