The School of Odds
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Orix Buffaloes v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orix Buffaloes (Local)

Prediction 34.26%2.92fair odd
EV +0.038%
Edge +0.013%
Kelly +0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.33%34.15%36.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.732.702.9241.67%36.59%37.04%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 65.74%1.52fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -8.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.71%65.67%65.85%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.441.4673.53%69.81%69.44%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orix Buffaloes (Local): 34.26%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 65.74%. For Orix Buffaloes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.919. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.920, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.038%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV +0.038%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.82%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-16 08:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV +0.038%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -5.99%E -4.19%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-16 07:51
LowVig.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV +0.038%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -5.99%E -4.19%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-16 07:50
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.56%EV -1.68%E -0.584%K -0.896%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.44%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-16 06:20
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -2.36%E -0.828%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.96%E -5.69%K -19.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 22:00
BetUS🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.88%EV -3.05%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.12%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 08:40
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-16 08:45
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-16 08:45
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-16 07:50
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 08:55
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.65%E -4.68%K -15.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 16:11
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.96%E -5.69%K -19.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 21:48
Coolbet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -4.76%E -1.71%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-15 22:20
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.79%E -2.10%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-16 08:55
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.79%E -2.10%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.96%E -5.69%K -19.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 07:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.79%E -2.10%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.96%E -5.69%K -19.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 07:50
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.02%E -2.75%K -8.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-16 08:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 08:40
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 08:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 08:40
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 08:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 08:40
ReBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 08:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 00:50
Fanatics🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.96%E -5.69%K -19.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 08:53
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.50%E -2.78%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.96%E -5.69%K -19.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-15 22:20
MyBookie.ag🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%EV -7.84%E -2.92%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-16 08:05
Caesars🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.21%E -3.48%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.68%E -3.23%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-15 14:39
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -9.21%E -3.48%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 00:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.24%E -3.91%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-16 08:55
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.93%E -4.20%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-16 08:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 36.29%EV -16.41%E -6.72%K -11.39%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.71%EV -8.62%E -6.20%K -22.10%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-16 08:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.17%EV -17.78%E -7.41%K -12.70%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 63.83%EV -10.59%E -7.79%K -29.43%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-16 08:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.