The School of Odds
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Orix Buffaloes v Chiba Lotte Marines

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 05:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orix Buffaloes (Local)

Prediction 58.69%1.70fair odd
EV -0.222%
Edge -0.131%
Kelly -0.318%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.87%58.61%58.75%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.621.611.7065.36%61.87%62.11%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit)

Prediction 41.31%2.42fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.709%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%41.39%41.25%44.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.252.3847.62%44.20%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orix Buffaloes (Local): 58.69%; Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit): 41.31%. For Orix Buffaloes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.704. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.700, with an expected value of -0.222%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -0.222%E -0.131%K -0.318%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -6.23%E -2.75%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-25 04:55
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -0.809%E -0.479%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 04:45
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -1.40%E -0.831%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -6.23%E -2.75%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-25 04:45
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.57%E -1.55%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 04:30
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.57%E -1.55%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 04:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.57%E -1.55%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 04:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.57%E -1.55%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 04:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.57%E -1.55%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 04:30
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.57%E -1.55%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 04:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.16%E -1.91%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.93%E -1.25%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-24 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.16%E -1.91%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.93%E -1.25%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-24 16:05
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.16%E -1.91%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.93%E -1.25%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-25 04:50
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.16%E -1.91%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 04:54
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.16%E -1.91%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-25 04:43
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.92%E -3.04%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 04:50
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.92%E -3.04%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 04:50
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.92%E -3.04%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-25 04:50
William Hill🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -5.50%E -3.42%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -1.69%E -0.709%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-25 04:20
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.50%E -3.42%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.93%E -1.25%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-24 21:15
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.50%E -3.42%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -3.34%E -1.43%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 04:50
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.50%E -3.42%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -3.75%E -1.61%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 04:54
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.50%E -3.42%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 04:50
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.50%E -3.42%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 04:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.50%E -3.42%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 04:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.85%E -5.00%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.93%E -1.25%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-25 04:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.85%E -5.00%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.85%E -5.00%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.85%E -5.00%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 04:55
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.85%E -5.00%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 04:50
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.85%E -5.00%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.06%E -3.14%K -5.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 21:10
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.44%E -5.41%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.93%E -1.25%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 02:55
Everygame🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.03%E -5.82%K -16.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 04:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.03%E -5.82%K -16.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 04:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -9.03%E -5.82%K -16.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -11.19%E -5.20%K -9.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-25 04:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.85%EV -10.20%E -6.67%K -19.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -13.25%E -6.31%K -12.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-25 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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