The School of Odds
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Orix Buffaloes v Chiba Lotte Marines

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orix Buffaloes (Local)

Prediction 52.37%1.91fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.31%52.36%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.801.801.8758.14%55.58%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit)

Prediction 47.63%2.10fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.680%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.24%47.69%47.64%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.971.982.0753.48%50.78%50.51%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orix Buffaloes (Local): 52.37%; Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit): 47.63%. For Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.07, with an expected value of -1.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -2.07%E -1.11%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -10.93%E -5.85%K -12.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 08:25
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -2.59%E -1.39%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-06 16:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -3.11%E -1.68%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -5.22%E -2.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-06 20:40
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -1.41%E -0.680%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-07 08:55
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 16:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-07 08:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-07 08:24
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.80%EV -8.55%E -4.45%K -9.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-07 08:55
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.69%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.79%E -1.88%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-07 08:55
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.69%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-07 04:05
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.69%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-07 03:25
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.69%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-07 03:25
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.69%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-07 05:15
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.69%E -2.88%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-06 22:44
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 16:45
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-07 08:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 16:45
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 16:44
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-07 06:05
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.03%E -4.73%K -9.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 17:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.03%E -4.73%K -9.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.03%E -4.73%K -9.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 17:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -6.26%E -3.50%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -6.65%E -3.39%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-07 04:08
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.30%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-07 05:05
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.30%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-07 05:04
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.30%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-07 05:04
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.30%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-07 05:05
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.30%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-07 05:05
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.35%E -4.77%K -11.13%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-07 05:39
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.35%E -4.77%K -11.13%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 22:45
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.87%E -5.10%K -11.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-07 04:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -8.87%E -5.10%K -11.99%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.80%EV -9.50%E -5.00%K -10.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-07 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.92%E -5.77%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-07 04:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.