The School of Odds
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Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local)

Prediction 61.94%1.61fair odd
EV -0.896%
Edge -0.560%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.70%61.94%62.22%64.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.521.6069.44%65.86%66.01%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 38.06%2.63fair odd
EV +2.76%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.41%38.06%37.78%40.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.472.502.7045.45%40.43%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local): 61.94%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 38.06%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -8.33%E -5.63%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +2.76%E +1.02%K +1.62%G +0.045%4.6%2026-09-17 08:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.37%E -2.16%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -2.19%E -0.851%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-17 08:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.37%E -2.16%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -2.19%E -0.851%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-17 08:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.95%E -1.16%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 08:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.95%E -1.16%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 08:35
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.95%E -1.16%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 08:35
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.95%E -1.16%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.95%E -1.16%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 08:35
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.95%E -1.16%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 08:36
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.95%E -1.16%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-16 22:30
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.23%E -3.42%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.09%E -1.62%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 08:25
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.23%E -3.42%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.09%E -1.62%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 08:54
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.99%E -2.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.85%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-17 08:35
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.85%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-17 08:25
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.85%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-16 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.85%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-17 08:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.85%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-17 08:25
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.33%E -5.63%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -4.85%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-16 22:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.95%E -6.09%K -19.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -4.85%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-17 08:25
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV -2.75%E -1.75%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -5.23%E -2.10%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 08:20
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -0.896%E -0.560%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -5.99%E -2.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-17 08:21
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.23%E -3.42%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.75%E -2.76%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 08:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -4.61%E -3.00%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV -7.13%E -2.92%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 08:34
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.61%E -3.00%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.66%E -3.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-17 08:14
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.23%E -3.42%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.66%E -3.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 08:30
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.23%E -3.42%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.66%E -3.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 08:30
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.23%E -3.42%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.66%E -3.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 08:25
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -0.896%E -0.560%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -9.80%E -4.13%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-17 08:25
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -5.23%E -3.42%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -10.56%E -4.49%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 08:30
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -5.23%E -3.42%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.54%EV -9.57%E -6.55%K -20.80%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 39.46%EV -14.75%E -6.58%K -11.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-17 08:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.44%EV -10.81%E -7.50%K -24.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.56%EV -16.27%E -7.39%K -13.56%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-17 08:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.