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Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local)

Prediction 59.32%1.69fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.842%
Kelly +2.03%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.15%59.30%59.43%60.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.601.601.7166.23%62.60%62.50%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 40.68%2.46fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.28%40.70%40.57%43.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.4046.51%43.67%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local): 59.32%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 40.68%. For Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV +1.44%E +0.842%K +2.03%G +0.029%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -10.91%E -4.98%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 00:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.12%E -1.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 04:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.12%E -1.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 04:35
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -3.31%E -2.03%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.37%E -0.988%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-16 04:40
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.25%EV -3.31%E -2.03%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.75%EV -3.59%E -1.52%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-16 04:40
BetUS🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -3.31%E -2.03%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -6.85%E -2.99%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 04:40
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.90%E -2.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.37%E -0.988%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 04:30
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.90%E -2.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.47%E -3.77%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-15 17:00
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -3.90%E -2.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -12.54%E -5.83%K -10.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 04:55
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.49%E -2.79%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 04:45
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.49%E -2.79%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.22%E -2.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 04:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.49%E -2.79%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -9.29%E -4.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 04:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.49%E -2.79%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -9.29%E -4.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 04:30
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.49%E -2.79%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -9.29%E -4.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 04:30
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.49%E -2.79%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -9.29%E -4.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 04:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.49%E -2.79%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -9.29%E -4.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 04:30
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.49%E -2.79%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -9.29%E -4.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 04:30
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 04:35
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 04:35
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.68%E -3.57%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -3.19%E -1.34%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-16 04:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -5.68%E -3.57%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -6.03%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 04:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.68%E -3.57%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 04:30
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.68%E -3.57%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 04:30
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.68%E -3.57%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 04:40
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 04:30
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 04:30
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 04:30
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.47%E -3.77%K -6.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 04:30
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.47%E -3.77%K -6.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 04:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.47%E -3.77%K -6.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 04:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.47%E -3.77%K -6.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 04:40
Everygame🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.05%E -5.19%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 04:54
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.05%E -5.19%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 04:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -9.83%E -6.47%K -18.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 04:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.74%EV -10.42%E -6.90%K -20.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.26%EV -12.54%E -5.83%K -10.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-16 04:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.