The School of Odds
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Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local)

Prediction 57.63%1.74fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -3.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%57.51%57.69%58.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.641.631.6964.94%61.11%61.35%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 42.37%2.36fair odd
EV -0.850%
Edge -0.363%
Kelly -0.634%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.06%42.49%42.31%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.222.222.3448.31%45.03%45.05%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local): 57.63%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 42.37%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.34, with an expected value of -0.850%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.22%EV -2.61%E -1.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.78%EV -4.24%E -1.88%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-11 04:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.61%E -1.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-10 14:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.61%E -1.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-10 14:34
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.61%E -1.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.90%E -4.14%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 04:54
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.32%EV -2.97%E -1.30%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-11 04:54
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.76%E -2.25%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.55%E -1.11%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-11 04:10
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.76%E -2.25%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 13:53
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.76%E -2.25%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 19:45
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.91%E -2.98%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 04:40
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.91%E -2.98%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 04:39
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.91%E -2.98%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 03:29
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.91%E -2.98%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 02:29
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.91%E -2.98%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 04:50
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.91%E -2.98%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.90%E -4.14%K -7.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 19:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -4.91%E -2.98%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -11.02%E -5.25%K -10.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-11 04:49
William Hill🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -0.850%E -0.363%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 03:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 04:54
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 04:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 04:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 04:54
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 04:54
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 04:54
MyBookie.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -5.09%E -2.27%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-11 04:15
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.55%E -1.11%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 04:09
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 04:09
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 04:09
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 04:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 04:09
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.22%E -4.48%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 13:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.22%E -4.48%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 13:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.22%E -4.48%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 13:55
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.22%E -4.48%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-11 02:29
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.22%E -4.48%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-11 04:14
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-11 04:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -8.95%E -5.66%K -15.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.90%E -4.14%K -7.74%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-11 04:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.34%EV -11.25%E -7.31%K -20.84%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.66%EV -12.29%E -5.94%K -11.49%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-11 04:32
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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