Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Kickoff: 2026-07-15 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)

Prediction 42.17%2.37fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.563%
Kelly -0.983%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%42.05%42.28%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.232.232.3448.08%44.75%44.84%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit)

Prediction 57.83%1.73fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%57.95%57.72%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.631.641.6764.94%61.48%60.98%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local): 42.17%; Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit): 57.83%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.34, with an expected value of -1.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -1.32%E -0.563%K -0.983%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -5.74%E -3.52%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 05:59
Pinnacle2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -2.16%E -0.931%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -3.43%E -2.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-15 08:45
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -2.16%E -0.931%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -4.01%E -2.41%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-15 08:49
LowVig.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -2.16%E -0.931%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -4.01%E -2.41%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-15 08:50
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.00%E -1.31%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.32%E -3.90%K -10.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-15 08:50
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.00%E -1.31%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.37%E -6.69%K -18.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-15 08:49
1xBet2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -3.43%E -1.50%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -3.43%E -2.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-15 08:50
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.78%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 08:34
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.78%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 08:50
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.78%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 08:50
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.78%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 08:45
MyBookie.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.32%E -3.90%K -10.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 08:54
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.90%E -4.28%K -11.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-15 08:49
Hard Rock Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.90%E -4.28%K -11.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-15 08:49
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.90%E -4.28%K -11.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-15 08:38
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -9.79%E -6.27%K -17.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-15 08:54
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -5.96%E -2.67%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -5.16%E -3.15%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-15 08:54
Unibet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -5.96%E -2.67%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -5.16%E -3.15%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-15 08:54
BetRivers2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -5.96%E -2.67%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -5.16%E -3.15%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-15 08:54
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -5.96%E -2.67%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -5.16%E -3.15%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-15 08:54
Bally Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -5.96%E -2.67%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -5.16%E -3.15%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-15 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -5.96%E -2.67%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -5.16%E -3.15%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-15 08:55
BetUS2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -6.80%E -3.08%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -4.01%E -2.41%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-15 08:54
Caesars2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.43%E -2.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-14 13:22
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.43%E -2.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 08:40
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.32%E -3.90%K -10.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-15 08:49
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.90%E -4.28%K -11.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 08:34
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.90%E -4.28%K -11.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 08:34
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.90%E -4.28%K -11.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 08:34
ReBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.90%E -4.28%K -11.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 08:50
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.90%E -4.28%K -11.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 08:50
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.48%E -4.67%K -12.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-15 08:39
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.58%E -2.78%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-15 08:39
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -9.79%E -6.27%K -17.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-15 08:50
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 42.54%EV -12.28%E -5.90%K -11.37%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.46%EV -10.95%E -7.11%K -20.27%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-15 08:47
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.