The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)

Prediction 56.54%1.77fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.678%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.87%56.39%56.54%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.671.7963.69%59.66%59.88%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 43.46%2.30fair odd
EV -0.920%
Edge -0.404%
Kelly -0.719%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%43.61%43.46%46.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.032.152.152.2849.26%46.56%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local): 56.54%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 43.46%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV +1.21%E +0.678%K +1.54%G +0.019%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -9.18%E -4.39%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-29 08:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.61%E -0.927%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-29 08:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.61%E -0.927%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-29 08:35
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -1.61%E -0.927%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -10.91%E -5.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 16:39
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 16:40
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 16:40
Bally Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 16:39
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -5.70%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 08:50
BetUS🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -7.44%E -3.49%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 08:55
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -0.920%E -0.404%K -0.719%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-29 08:55
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.22%E -0.988%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 08:50
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.01%E -2.98%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 08:40
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.01%E -2.98%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 08:40
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 08:40
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 08:45
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 08:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 08:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 08:45
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -6.14%E -3.70%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -2.66%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 08:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -6.14%E -3.70%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -4.83%E -2.21%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 08:54
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.70%E -4.06%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.22%E -0.988%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 08:38
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.70%E -4.06%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 08:35
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.70%E -4.06%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 08:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.70%E -4.06%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 08:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.40%E -5.18%K -13.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 08:50
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.40%E -5.18%K -13.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 08:49
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.40%E -5.18%K -13.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 08:49
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.96%E -5.57%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 08:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.91%EV -10.10%E -6.35%K -17.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -8.74%E -4.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 08:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.39%EV -11.23%E -7.15%K -19.69%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 43.61%EV -11.78%E -5.80%K -11.44%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-29 08:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.