The School of Odds

Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)

Prediction 56.60%1.77fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.874%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%56.70%56.63%57.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.591.661.661.7462.89%60.29%60.24%57.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 43.40%2.30fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.457%
Kelly -0.814%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%43.30%43.37%45.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.202.2850.00%45.88%45.45%43.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -1.52%E -0.874%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -11.02%E -5.38%K -10.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-08 08:49
Pinnacle1.73I 57.80%NM 56.20%EV -2.09%E -1.21%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.80%EV -3.65%E -1.64%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-08 08:45
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.22%E -1.88%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 08:55
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.22%E -1.88%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 08:30
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.22%E -1.88%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 08:30
DraftKings1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.35%E -2.57%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 19:20
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -4.35%E -2.57%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -8.85%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 08:50
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.92%E -2.93%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.48%E -0.650%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-08 03:30
FanDuel1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.92%E -2.93%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 08:55
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.92%E -2.93%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 03:19
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.92%E -2.93%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 03:19
Caesars1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 14:04
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 13:54
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 13:54
ReBet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 08:55
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 06:30
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.85%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-08 08:54
William Hill1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -6.05%E -3.64%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -1.04%E -0.457%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 03:25
Coolbet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.05%E -3.64%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.21%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 23:14
MyBookie.ag1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -6.05%E -3.64%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -4.95%E -2.26%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 03:24
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.61%E -4.01%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 00:15
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.61%E -4.01%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.85%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-08 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.21%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 08:40
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.21%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 08:40
Bally Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.21%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 08:40
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.21%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 08:40
BetRivers1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.21%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 08:40
PMU (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.21%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 08:40
Fliff1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-08 08:05
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -11.02%E -5.38%K -10.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-08 08:54
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 23:05
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 23:09
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 23:10
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-08 00:05
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.44%E -5.90%K -15.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-08 08:05
Betclic (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 55.71%EV -10.01%E -6.30%K -16.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -13.19%E -6.60%K -13.19%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-08 08:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.