The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)

Prediction 53.41%1.87fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.643%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.35%53.28%53.52%54.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.761.771.8558.14%56.67%56.50%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 46.59%2.15fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.805%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.38%46.72%46.48%48.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.012.002.1152.63%49.64%50.00%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local): 53.41%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 46.59%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -1.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -1.19%E -0.643%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -7.29%E -3.66%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 07:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -1.19%E -0.643%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -8.22%E -4.17%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 08:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -1.19%E -0.643%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -8.22%E -4.17%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 08:30
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -3.86%E -2.14%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV -1.70%E -0.805%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 08:54
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.86%E -2.14%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 08:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.86%E -2.14%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.15%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 07:30
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.86%E -2.14%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.15%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 08:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -3.86%E -2.14%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -11.48%E -6.04%K -12.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 08:24
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -4.39%E -2.45%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -2.63%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-23 08:54
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.93%E -2.77%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 08:54
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.93%E -2.77%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 08:55
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.93%E -2.77%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 08:48
FanDuel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.93%E -2.77%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.96%E -2.43%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 08:40
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.46%E -3.09%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 08:54
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.46%E -3.09%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 06:14
ReBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.46%E -3.09%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 08:40
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.46%E -3.09%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 08:44
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.46%E -3.09%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 08:49
MyBookie.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.46%E -3.09%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.75%E -3.92%K -7.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 08:50
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.53%E -3.73%K -8.71%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.15%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 05:24
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.06%E -4.06%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 08:39
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.06%E -4.06%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.15%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 06:14
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.60%E -4.39%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 08:39
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.60%E -4.39%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 05:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.60%E -4.39%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.60%E -4.39%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 05:44
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.60%E -4.39%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 08:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.13%E -4.73%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.56%E -1.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 08:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.13%E -4.73%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.56%E -1.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 08:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.13%E -4.73%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.56%E -1.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 08:19
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.13%E -4.73%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.56%E -1.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 08:20
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.13%E -4.73%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.56%E -1.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 08:19
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.13%E -4.73%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.56%E -1.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 08:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.88%EV -8.13%E -4.73%K -11.29%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.12%EV -10.08%E -5.23%K -10.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 08:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.