The School of Odds

Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-07-07 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)

Prediction 52.78%1.89fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.691%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.57%52.65%53.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.681.801.801.8759.52%55.63%55.56%53.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 47.22%2.12fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.24%47.43%47.35%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.871.972.002.0553.48%50.78%50.00%48.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -1.29%E -0.691%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -11.71%E -6.26%K -13.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 14:04
Unibet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -1.82%E -0.979%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -9.35%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-07 08:55
Pinnacle1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -2.35%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -3.21%E -1.57%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-07 08:50
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -2.35%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -6.04%E -3.04%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-06 14:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -2.35%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -9.35%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 08:55
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -2.35%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -9.35%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 08:55
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -2.35%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -9.35%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 08:55
Unibet (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -2.35%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -9.35%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 08:55
Bally Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -2.35%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -9.35%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 08:55
BetUS1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -2.35%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -10.76%E -5.69%K -12.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-07 08:45
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -2.88%E -1.56%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -4.63%E -2.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-07 08:40
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.93%E -2.16%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 08:40
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.21%E -1.57%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-07 08:15
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.21%E -1.57%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-07 08:39
LowVig.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.21%E -1.57%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-07 08:40
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 08:45
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 08:40
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 07:34
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 08:29
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 14:04
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 14:04
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.99%E -2.77%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 14:05
FanDuel1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.04%E -3.40%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -3.68%E -1.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-07 08:15
MyBookie.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -6.04%E -3.40%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV -5.10%E -2.54%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 08:18
ReBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.57%E -3.71%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-07 08:14
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.57%E -3.71%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-07 07:45
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.57%E -3.71%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-07 08:15
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.57%E -3.71%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-07 08:10
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.63%E -4.36%K -10.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-07 07:29
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.63%E -4.36%K -10.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-07 08:35
Betway1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.15%E -4.69%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-07 07:45
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.68%E -5.02%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-07 08:15
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.21%E -5.35%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-07 07:45
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.21%E -5.35%K -12.79%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.12%EV -8.87%E -4.60%K -9.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-07 08:45
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.68%EV -11.32%E -6.74%K -16.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.32%EV -11.71%E -6.26%K -13.46%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-07 08:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.