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Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Tokyo Yakult Swallows
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)
Prediction 53.07%1.88fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.987%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.80%52.98%53.05%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.791.781.8558.14%55.99%56.18%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)
Prediction 46.93%2.13fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.914%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%47.02%46.95%49.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.992.002.0952.36%50.33%50.00%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local): 53.07%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 46.93%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -1.83%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -1.83%E -0.987%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -6.60%E -3.32%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 07:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -1.83%E -0.987%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -10.36%E -5.42%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -1.83%E -0.987%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -10.36%E -5.42%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -1.83%E -0.987%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -10.36%E -5.42%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -1.83%E -0.987%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -10.36%E -5.42%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -1.83%E -0.987%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -10.36%E -5.42%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -1.83%E -0.987%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -10.36%E -5.42%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -2.89%E -1.58%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.32%E -1.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 08:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.48%E -2.49%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.48%E -2.49%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 08:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.48%E -2.49%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 08:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.48%E -2.49%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.48%E -2.49%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.48%E -2.49%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 08:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.48%E -2.49%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -7.07%E -3.57%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 06:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -5.01%E -2.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -1.91%E -0.914%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-21 08:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.54%E -3.11%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 08:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.54%E -3.11%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.26%E -2.09%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.54%E -3.11%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -7.07%E -3.57%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 08:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-21 08:54 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.07%E -3.57%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-21 08:48 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.13%E -4.08%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.48%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.13%E -4.08%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.48%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-21 08:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.13%E -4.08%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.48%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-21 06:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.66%E -4.40%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 06:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.66%E -4.40%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.48%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-21 08:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.74%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.74%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.74%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 06:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.74%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.88%EV -8.72%E -5.07%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.12%EV -9.42%E -4.88%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.