The School of Odds
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Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Chunichi Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)

Prediction 52.37%1.91fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%52.43%52.36%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.791.801.8558.14%55.78%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chunichi Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 47.63%2.10fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.24%47.57%47.64%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.971.972.0252.91%50.84%50.76%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local): 52.37%; Chunichi Dragons (Visit): 47.63%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -3.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -3.11%E -1.68%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -5.22%E -2.63%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-27 15:10
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -3.63%E -1.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -3.80%E -1.88%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-27 14:40
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-27 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-27 14:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-27 14:50
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.68%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.80%E -1.88%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-27 15:35
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%EV -4.68%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.52%EV -4.27%E -2.13%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-27 20:55
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.68%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-27 20:59
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.68%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-27 14:39
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.68%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-27 21:00
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.68%E -2.57%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-27 14:40
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.70%E -2.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-27 22:55
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.13%E -3.66%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 14:39
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.13%E -3.66%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 14:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.13%E -3.66%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 14:38
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.13%E -3.66%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 20:45
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.03%E -4.73%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-27 14:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.03%E -4.73%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-27 14:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.03%E -4.73%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-27 14:39
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -6.25%E -3.49%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -5.70%E -2.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-28 03:10
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -6.25%E -3.49%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -6.18%E -3.14%K -6.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-28 03:10
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -6.25%E -3.49%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -6.18%E -3.14%K -6.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-28 03:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -6.77%E -3.81%K -8.69%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -6.65%E -3.39%K -6.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-27 14:39
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.30%E -4.12%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-27 14:39
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.30%E -4.12%K -9.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.13%E -3.66%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 14:40
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.35%E -4.77%K -11.13%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.13%E -3.66%K -7.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-27 22:55
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.87%E -5.10%K -11.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -7.13%E -3.66%K -7.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-27 14:40
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -8.87%E -5.10%K -11.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -9.03%E -4.73%K -9.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-27 17:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.92%E -5.77%K -13.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -4.75%E -2.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-27 20:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.35%EV -9.92%E -5.77%K -13.77%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.65%EV -9.99%E -5.28%K -11.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-27 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.35%EV -9.92%E -5.77%K -13.77%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.65%EV -9.99%E -5.28%K -11.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-27 17:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.