The School of Odds
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Hanshin Tigers v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanshin Tigers (Local)

Prediction 63.87%1.57fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +4.64%
Growth +0.131%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.21%63.80%63.88%65.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.491.501.6170.42%67.13%66.67%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 36.13%2.77fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.365%
Kelly -0.575%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.89%36.20%36.12%40.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.572.602.7444.44%38.84%38.46%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hanshin Tigers (Local): 63.87%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 36.13%. For Hanshin Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV +2.83%E +1.76%K +4.64%G +0.131%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -14.01%E -5.89%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-08 15:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -1.00%E -0.647%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -18.70%E -8.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 03:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-09 08:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-09 08:39
1xBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -2.92%E -1.92%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV -4.97%E -1.89%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 08:34
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.92%E -1.92%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.87%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 08:54
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.00%E -0.365%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-09 08:44
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 08:44
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 08:44
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 08:54
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 08:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 08:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 08:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 08:39
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 08:40
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 08:40
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 08:40
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-09 08:54
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -7.87%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 08:52
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.47%E -3.70%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 08:44
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.47%E -3.70%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 08:45
FanDuel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -1.72%E -0.633%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 08:50
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -1.72%E -0.633%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 07:59
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-09 08:44
ReBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-09 08:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.95%EV -6.75%E -4.62%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.05%EV -6.42%E -2.48%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 08:48
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 08:50
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-09 08:49
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-09 08:44
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-09 08:54
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 08:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.31%E -6.55%K -22.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 08:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.