The School of Odds
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Hanshin Tigers v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-09-29 09:18 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanshin Tigers (Local)

Prediction 68.59%1.46fair odd
EV -5.35%
Edge -3.88%
Kelly -14.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.57%68.99%68.18%72.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.361.361.3877.52%73.59%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 31.41%3.18fair odd
EV +8.37%
Edge +2.43%
Kelly +3.42%
Growth +0.286%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.22%31.01%31.82%32.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.002.953.4536.36%33.34%33.90%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hanshin Tigers (Local): 68.59%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 31.41%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -11.52%E -8.93%K -39.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV +8.37%E +2.43%K +3.42%G +0.286%6.5%2026-09-29 09:02
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +0.518%E +0.162%K +0.235%G +0.001%5.3%2026-09-29 09:01
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.93%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.16%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.07%EV -1.37%E -0.435%K -0.639%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 09:05
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.35%E -3.88%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.62%E -0.846%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-29 09:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -9.46%E -7.17%K -29.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -2.62%E -0.846%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-29 08:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.72%E -4.94%K -18.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.76%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-29 08:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.35%E -3.88%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 08:45
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.35%E -3.88%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 08:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.35%E -3.88%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 08:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.35%E -3.88%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 08:45
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.35%E -3.88%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 08:44
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.35%E -3.88%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 08:44
Caesars🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.35%E -3.88%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-29 08:55
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.72%E -4.94%K -18.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-29 08:50
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-29 09:04
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.72%E -4.94%K -18.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -10.48%E -3.68%K -5.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-29 09:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.57%EV -9.46%E -7.17%K -29.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -13.62%E -4.95%K -7.78%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-29 09:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.