The School of Odds
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Hanshin Tigers v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanshin Tigers (Local)

Prediction 57.08%1.75fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -4.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%57.12%57.11%59.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.651.651.7065.36%60.76%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 42.92%2.33fair odd
EV +0.864%
Edge +0.367%
Kelly +0.640%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.66%42.88%42.89%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.192.202.3550.76%45.68%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hanshin Tigers (Local): 57.08%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 42.92%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.864%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV +0.864%E +0.367%K +0.640%G +0.006%4.7%2026-09-18 15:19
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -3.54%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -2.14%E -0.939%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-18 14:20
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.54%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-18 15:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.54%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-18 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.54%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-18 14:25
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.82%E -3.53%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.82%E -3.53%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 15:30
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -2.97%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-18 14:37
Coolbet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.25%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 15:30
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.72%E -2.12%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-18 15:20
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:24
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.54%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 14:29
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 14:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 15:04
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.82%E -3.53%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 14:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.49%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.51%EV -10.30%E -4.93%K -9.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 15:18
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.32%EV -9.24%E -5.81%K -15.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.68%EV -12.01%E -5.86%K -11.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.29%EV -12.67%E -8.28%K -23.90%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 43.71%EV -15.45%E -7.84%K -15.92%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-18 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.