The School of Odds
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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local)

Prediction 61.06%1.64fair odd
EV +0.139%
Edge +0.085%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.06%61.26%61.01%63.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.551.531.6469.44%64.69%65.36%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 38.94%2.57fair odd
EV -0.703%
Edge -0.276%
Kelly -0.454%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.25%38.74%38.99%41.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.402.5545.45%41.66%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local): 61.06%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 38.94%. For Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.638. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.640, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.139%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV +0.139%E +0.085%K +0.217%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -6.93%E -2.90%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-22 08:54
BetUS🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV +0.139%E +0.085%K +0.217%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -11.61%E -5.11%K -9.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-22 08:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -2.30%E -1.44%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -3.82%E -1.55%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-22 08:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -2.30%E -1.44%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -3.82%E -1.55%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-22 08:54
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -2.30%E -1.44%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -5.38%E -2.21%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-22 08:49
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.30%E -1.44%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.49%E -3.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 08:49
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -2.91%E -1.83%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-22 08:49
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.52%E -2.23%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-22 08:54
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.14%E -2.63%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-22 08:54
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.14%E -2.63%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 08:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.75%E -3.04%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 08:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.75%E -3.04%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 08:49
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.75%E -3.04%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.75%E -3.04%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 08:49
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.75%E -3.04%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 08:49
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.75%E -3.04%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 08:49
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -1.87%E -0.743%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-22 08:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-22 08:49
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.46%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.54%EV -4.99%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-22 08:48
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 08:44
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 08:44
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 08:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.32%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-22 08:54
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.32%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-22 08:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.32%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-22 08:54
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-22 08:54
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -7.19%E -4.73%K -13.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -0.703%E -0.276%K -0.454%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-22 08:46
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.41%E -5.61%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.65%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-21 14:29
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.41%E -5.61%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-22 08:29
Fanatics🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.02%E -6.05%K -18.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -6.54%E -2.73%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-22 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.54%EV -10.85%E -7.43%K -23.59%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 39.46%EV -12.77%E -5.70%K -10.30%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-22 08:48
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -11.46%E -7.91%K -25.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -0.703%E -0.276%K -0.454%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 16:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.44%EV -12.07%E -8.38%K -27.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.56%EV -14.33%E -6.51%K -11.94%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-22 08:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.