The School of Odds
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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks v Orix Buffaloes

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 09:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local)

Prediction 65.02%1.54fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +3.64%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.23%64.83%65.00%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.461.471.5772.46%68.43%68.03%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orix Buffaloes (Visit)

Prediction 34.98%2.86fair odd
EV -0.295%
Edge -0.104%
Kelly -0.160%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%35.17%35.00%38.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.472.662.702.8540.49%37.64%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local): 65.02%; Orix Buffaloes (Visit): 34.98%. For Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV +2.08%E +1.32%K +3.64%G +0.076%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -13.24%E -5.34%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-22 03:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -4.14%E -1.51%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-22 08:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -4.14%E -1.51%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-22 08:50
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 08:40
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.54%E -5.02%K -8.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 08:54
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -4.49%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-22 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 08:50
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 08:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 08:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 08:50
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 08:50
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 08:50
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-22 08:55
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-22 08:55
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -6.59%E -2.47%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 08:55
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.54%E -5.02%K -8.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 08:40
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.89%EV -4.43%E -3.01%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.11%EV -0.645%E -0.227%K -0.351%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-22 08:50
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -4.43%E -3.01%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -4.84%E -1.78%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 08:55
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -3.44%E -1.25%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-22 08:50
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 08:55
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -0.295%E -0.104%K -0.160%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-22 08:55
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-22 08:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.47%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.53%EV -4.49%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-22 08:55
ReBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 08:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 08:55
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.34%E -3.18%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 08:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.34%E -3.18%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 08:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.34%E -3.18%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 08:55
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.03%E -4.91%K -16.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 08:48
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.03%E -4.91%K -16.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 08:55
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.03%E -4.91%K -16.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 08:55
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.98%E -6.41%K -22.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.98%E -6.41%K -22.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 08:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.56%EV -8.98%E -6.41%K -22.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-22 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.16%EV -10.28%E -7.45%K -27.05%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.84%EV -13.59%E -5.50%K -9.24%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-22 08:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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