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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks v Chiba Lotte Marines

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 09:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local)

Prediction 69.40%1.44fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -7.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.76%69.37%69.63%70.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.4075.76%73.53%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit)

Prediction 30.60%3.27fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.652%
Kelly -0.948%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.20%30.63%30.37%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.003.003.2034.48%33.35%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local): 69.40%; Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit): 30.60%. For Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -2.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.25%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.75%EV -7.90%E -2.62%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-08 09:02
William Hill🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.53%E -2.54%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -5.15%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-08 09:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.23%E -3.06%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 09:14
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.23%E -3.06%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.23%E -3.06%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 09:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.23%E -3.06%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 09:15
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.23%E -3.06%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 09:14
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.23%E -3.06%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 09:15
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.61%E -4.13%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.09%E -0.652%K -0.948%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 09:00
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.61%E -4.13%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.21%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 09:15
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.61%E -4.13%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.21%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 09:14
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.11%EV -6.31%E -4.67%K -18.02%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -7.59%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 09:01
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -6.31%E -4.67%K -18.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 09:14
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -7.00%E -5.23%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -3.62%E -1.15%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 09:07
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -7.00%E -5.23%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -3.62%E -1.15%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 09:07
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -7.70%E -5.79%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -6.68%E -2.19%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 09:07
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -7.70%E -5.79%K -23.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 09:07
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -7.70%E -5.79%K -23.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.27%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 09:07
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -8.39%E -6.36%K -26.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.09%E -0.652%K -0.948%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 09:02
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.