The School of Odds
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Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-08-05 09:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 56.07%1.78fair odd
EV -0.188%
Edge -0.106%
Kelly -0.242%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%55.96%56.20%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.671.7863.29%59.19%59.88%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 43.93%2.28fair odd
EV +0.152%
Edge +0.066%
Kelly +0.118%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%44.04%43.80%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.122.2850.00%47.07%47.17%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 56.07%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 43.93%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.277. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.280, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.152%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -5.24%E -3.10%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV +0.152%E +0.066%K +0.118%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-05 08:55
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.48%E -4.53%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.17%E -0.518%K -0.933%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 08:55
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.48%E -4.53%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.17%E -0.518%K -0.933%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 08:55
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -2.48%E -1.12%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 08:40
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.36%E -1.53%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 08:34
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.48%E -4.53%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.36%E -1.53%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 08:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.28%E -6.43%K -17.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -3.36%E -1.53%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 08:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -4.68%E -2.16%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 08:43
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.43%E -1.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.56%E -2.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-05 08:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.43%E -1.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.56%E -2.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-05 08:35
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.24%E -3.10%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.56%E -2.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 08:55
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.56%E -2.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 08:40
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.56%E -2.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 08:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.56%E -2.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 08:34
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.48%E -4.53%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.56%E -2.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 08:40
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.16%E -5.65%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.56%E -2.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-05 08:40
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -1.31%E -0.744%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -6.44%E -3.02%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-05 08:30
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.99%E -1.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -6.88%E -3.24%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 08:40
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.76%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 08:35
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.76%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 08:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.76%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 08:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.36%E -3.81%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.76%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 08:35
William Hill🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -0.188%E -0.106%K -0.242%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -8.63%E -4.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 06:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -2.99%E -1.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -8.63%E -4.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -2.99%E -1.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -8.63%E -4.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 08:55
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -2.99%E -1.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -8.63%E -4.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 08:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -2.99%E -1.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -8.63%E -4.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 08:55
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -2.99%E -1.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -8.63%E -4.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 08:55
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -2.99%E -1.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -8.63%E -4.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 08:55
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.43%E -1.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 13:55
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.43%E -1.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 00:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -10.28%E -6.43%K -17.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-05 08:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.11%EV -11.40%E -7.22%K -19.66%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.89%EV -11.27%E -5.58%K -11.05%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-05 08:39
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -2.99%E -1.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -12.15%E -6.07%K -12.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 00:35
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -4.11%E -2.41%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -12.15%E -6.07%K -12.15%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-05 08:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.