The School of Odds
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Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 53.24%1.88fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.80%53.23%53.25%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.761.761.8458.48%56.66%56.82%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 46.76%2.14fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.861%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.88%46.77%46.75%49.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.012.002.1052.63%49.74%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 53.24%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 46.76%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%EV -2.03%E -1.11%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 23:50
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.45%EV -2.03%E -1.11%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.55%EV -5.08%E -2.50%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-24 00:40
BetUS🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -2.03%E -1.11%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -11.16%E -5.87%K -12.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 23:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.57%E -1.40%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 21:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.57%E -1.40%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 21:55
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.16%E -2.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.15%E -2.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 21:59
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.16%E -2.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 23:04
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.16%E -2.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -4.16%E -2.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -11.16%E -5.87%K -12.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 23:54
William Hill🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.23%E -2.94%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.74%E -1.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 21:55
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.23%E -2.94%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.15%E -2.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 00:39
FanDuel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.23%E -2.94%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.61%E -2.26%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 23:55
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.76%E -3.25%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.15%E -2.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 20:14
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.76%E -3.25%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 21:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.76%E -3.25%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 23:55
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.76%E -3.25%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 21:26
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.76%E -3.25%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 22:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -6.29%E -3.58%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 23:54
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.83%E -3.90%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 03:09
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.83%E -3.90%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 22:34
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.36%E -4.23%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 23:55
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.36%E -4.23%K -9.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-24 03:04
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.36%E -4.23%K -9.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 23:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 16:59
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 16:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 16:59
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 16:59
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 17:04
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 21:54
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 21:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 21:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.89%E -4.56%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 21:40
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.96%E -5.24%K -12.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.81%E -0.861%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 13:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.15%EV -8.96%E -5.24%K -12.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.85%EV -9.29%E -4.79%K -9.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 23:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.