The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Chunichi Dragons v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 62.22%1.61fair odd
EV +0.799%
Edge +0.493%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%62.06%62.12%64.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.521.6269.44%66.32%65.79%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 37.78%2.65fair odd
EV +0.490%
Edge +0.184%
Kelly +0.295%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.85%37.94%37.88%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.502.522.6645.45%40.00%39.68%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 62.22%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 37.78%. For Chunichi Dragons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.799%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV +0.799%E +0.493%K +1.29%G +0.010%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -15.00%E -6.67%K -12.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 16:23
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.61%EV -2.31%E -1.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.39%EV -4.80%E -1.90%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-20 08:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.31%E -1.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -11.22%E -4.77%K -8.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 08:39
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -3.56%E -2.29%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -6.69%E -2.71%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 08:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +0.112%E +0.042%K +0.068%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-20 08:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +0.112%E +0.042%K +0.068%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-20 08:54
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.80%E -1.90%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 08:54
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.44%E -3.04%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 08:53
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.33%E -3.89%K -6.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 08:54
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.09%E -4.24%K -7.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 08:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.09%E -4.24%K -7.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 08:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.09%E -4.24%K -7.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 08:54
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -4.80%E -3.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -13.11%E -5.70%K -10.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 08:54
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.64%EV -5.42%E -3.57%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV +0.490%E +0.184%K +0.295%G +0.001%3.4%2026-09-20 08:49
BetUS🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -5.42%E -3.57%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -1.40%E -0.536%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 08:49
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.42%E -3.57%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.78%E -0.683%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 08:49
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.42%E -3.57%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.78%E -0.683%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 08:44
ReBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -6.05%E -4.00%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.44%E -3.04%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 08:54
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.67%E -4.44%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.44%E -3.04%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 08:54
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.67%E -4.44%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.33%E -3.89%K -6.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 08:49
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -7.29%E -4.89%K -14.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV +0.112%E +0.042%K +0.068%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 08:55
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.29%E -4.89%K -14.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -3.67%E -1.44%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 08:43
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.91%E -5.35%K -16.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -1.78%E -0.683%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 08:49
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -8.53%E -5.81%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -0.643%E -0.245%K -0.395%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 08:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -8.53%E -5.81%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -0.643%E -0.245%K -0.395%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 08:49
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -8.53%E -5.81%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -0.643%E -0.245%K -0.395%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 08:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -8.53%E -5.81%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -0.643%E -0.245%K -0.395%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 08:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -8.53%E -5.81%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -0.643%E -0.245%K -0.395%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 08:54
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -8.53%E -5.81%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -0.643%E -0.245%K -0.395%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 08:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.53%E -5.81%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.55%E -2.22%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 08:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.65%EV -9.16%E -6.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -15.00%E -6.67%K -12.00%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 08:49
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -10.40%E -7.22%K -23.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -5.55%E -2.22%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 08:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.44%EV -10.40%E -7.22%K -23.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.56%EV -16.89%E -7.68%K -14.07%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-20 08:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.