The School of Odds
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Chunichi Dragons v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-09-21 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 62.79%1.59fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -7.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.07%62.88%62.73%65.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.501.501.5370.92%66.67%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 37.21%2.69fair odd
EV +2.33%
Edge +0.848%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.83%37.12%37.27%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.532.502.7544.44%39.58%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 62.79%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 37.21%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +2.33%E +0.848%K +1.33%G +0.031%4.4%2026-09-21 04:28
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV +1.96%E +0.716%K +1.13%G +0.022%3.2%2026-09-21 04:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV +1.96%E +0.716%K +1.13%G +0.022%3.2%2026-09-21 04:24
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV -0.272%E -0.101%K -0.162%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-21 04:55
BetUS🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV -2.13%E -0.811%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-21 04:54
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-21 04:24
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-21 04:54
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-21 04:49
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 04:24
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-21 04:19
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-21 04:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.96%E -6.18%K -19.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 04:29
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -5.48%E -2.16%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-21 04:28
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 21:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-21 02:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 21:25
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-21 02:29
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.82%E -3.88%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-21 00:59
ReBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.45%E -4.33%K -13.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-21 04:24
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 04:24
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 04:24
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 04:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 04:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 04:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 04:49
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 04:49
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 04:54
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-21 00:54
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.69%E -4.45%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 15:39
Fanatics🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -6.45%E -4.33%K -13.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.69%E -4.45%K -7.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 04:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.87%EV -10.21%E -7.14%K -23.75%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.13%EV -13.67%E -5.89%K -10.35%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-21 04:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 61.48%EV -11.47%E -8.13%K -27.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.52%EV -16.27%E -7.23%K -13.02%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-21 04:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.