The School of Odds
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Chiba Lotte Marines v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-10-06 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chiba Lotte Marines (Local)

Prediction 46.39%2.16fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.74%46.40%46.38%48.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.022.012.1054.05%49.54%49.63%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 53.61%1.87fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.73%53.60%53.62%54.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.751.771.8160.98%57.02%56.66%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chiba Lotte Marines (Local): 46.39%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 53.61%. For Chiba Lotte Marines (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%EV -2.59%E -1.23%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%EV -2.96%E -1.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-05 13:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.59%E -1.23%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.10%E -2.88%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 13:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.59%E -1.23%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.10%E -2.88%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 13:20
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39%EV -3.52%E -1.69%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.61%EV -3.49%E -1.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-05 13:10
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.52%E -1.69%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.64%E -3.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 13:09
FanDuel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.45%E -2.16%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.10%E -2.88%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 13:25
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.91%E -2.39%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.49%E -1.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 13:24
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.91%E -2.39%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.57%E -2.57%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 13:10
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.91%E -2.39%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.57%E -2.57%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 13:10
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.91%E -2.39%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.71%E -3.86%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 13:05
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.91%E -2.39%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.71%E -3.86%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 13:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.44%EV -5.84%E -2.88%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.56%EV -5.64%E -3.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-05 13:29
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.49%E -1.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 14:20
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.10%E -2.88%K -6.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 13:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.10%E -2.88%K -6.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 13:25
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.25%E -4.19%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 13:24
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.25%E -4.19%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 13:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.25%E -4.19%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.25%E -4.19%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 13:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.78%E -4.53%K -10.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 15:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.05%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -8.32%E -4.87%K -11.72%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 13:23
BetUS🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -10.01%E -5.16%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -2.96%E -1.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 13:30
ReBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.65%EV -11.40%E -5.97%K -12.53%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.35%EV -10.46%E -6.27%K -15.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-05 13:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.99%EV -14.19%E -7.67%K -16.69%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.01%EV -12.07%E -7.36%K -18.86%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-05 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.