The School of Odds
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Chiba Lotte Marines v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-06-26 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chiba Lotte Marines (Local)

Prediction 43.36%2.31fair odd
EV -0.270%
Edge -0.117%
Kelly -0.208%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.39%43.30%43.30%46.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.202.202.3050.00%45.51%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 56.64%1.77fair odd
EV -0.315%
Edge -0.179%
Kelly -0.415%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.32%56.70%56.70%58.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.661.671.7662.11%60.15%59.88%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chiba Lotte Marines (Local): 43.36%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 56.64%. For Chiba Lotte Marines (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.270%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.270%E -0.117%K -0.208%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.41%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-26 08:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.270%E -0.117%K -0.208%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.41%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-26 08:09
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.14%E -0.499%K -0.889%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-26 08:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.14%E -0.499%K -0.889%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 23:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.14%E -0.499%K -0.889%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 23:00
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.14%E -0.499%K -0.889%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 23:00
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.14%E -0.499%K -0.889%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 23:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.14%E -0.499%K -0.889%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 23:00
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.61%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.85%E -2.88%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-26 08:09
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.61%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-25 23:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.61%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-25 23:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.61%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-25 23:09
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -6.34%E -2.94%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -0.315%E -0.179%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.1%2026-06-26 08:40
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -6.77%E -3.15%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -0.881%E -0.504%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-26 08:30
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.77%E -3.15%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.15%E -1.84%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-26 08:29
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.15%E -1.84%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-25 14:59
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -4.28%E -2.53%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-26 08:07
BetUS🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.68%EV -12.84%E -6.39%K -12.72%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.32%EV -0.315%E -0.179%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-26 08:29
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -13.28%E -6.64%K -13.28%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.71%E -2.18%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-26 08:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.