The School of Odds
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Chiba Lotte Marines v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chiba Lotte Marines (Local)

Prediction 38.77%2.58fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.442%
Kelly -0.727%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.88%38.59%38.88%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.452.5543.48%40.96%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 61.23%1.63fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.15%61.41%61.12%63.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.541.531.6068.03%65.03%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chiba Lotte Marines (Local): 38.77%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 61.23%. For Chiba Lotte Marines (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -1.13%E -0.442%K -0.727%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.77%E -5.89%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 01:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -1.13%E -0.442%K -0.727%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.77%E -5.89%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 01:05
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -1.13%E -0.442%K -0.727%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.77%E -5.89%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 01:05
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -1.13%E -0.442%K -0.727%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.77%E -5.89%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 01:04
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -3.07%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.65%E -1.67%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 04:45
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.07%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.87%E -2.47%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-03 13:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -3.07%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -10.00%E -6.80%K -21.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.45%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.65%E -1.67%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-03 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.45%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.65%E -1.67%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-03 16:55
William Hill🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.87%E -2.47%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-03 13:25
FanDuel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.71%E -3.71%K -10.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 13:20
Coolbet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.23%E -1.71%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 13:34
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.87%E -2.47%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-03 15:30
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 17:25
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 17:24
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 22:00
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.60%EV -5.39%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.40%EV -2.04%E -1.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 03:40
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.65%E -1.67%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-04 04:34
ReBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.71%E -3.71%K -10.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 04:05
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.71%E -3.71%K -10.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 03:49
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 13:25
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 13:25
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 13:33
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 21:48
MyBookie.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -7.33%E -3.07%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 13:25
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 13:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 13:34
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 03:40
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-03 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.