The School of Odds
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Chiba Lotte Marines v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chiba Lotte Marines (Local)

Prediction 36.96%2.71fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%36.96%37.03%38.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.552.602.6544.44%39.17%38.46%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 63.04%1.59fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.31%63.04%62.97%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.491.491.5470.42%67.13%67.11%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chiba Lotte Marines (Local): 36.96%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 63.04%. For Chiba Lotte Marines (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -2.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.05%E -0.774%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-03 08:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.05%E -0.774%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-03 08:25
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.16%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 08:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.16%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 08:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.16%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 08:25
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -3.53%E -1.35%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -2.92%E -1.90%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-03 08:45
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-03 08:25
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.18%E -2.75%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-03 08:25
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.18%E -2.75%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-03 08:25
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 08:54
Caesars🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 08:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 08:20
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 08:20
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 08:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 08:20
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 08:20
BetUS🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV -4.27%E -1.65%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-03 08:55
FanDuel🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -5.38%E -2.10%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -4.18%E -2.75%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 08:50
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.75%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-03 08:50
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.75%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 08:25
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.75%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.07%E -4.08%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 08:45
Fanatics🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -5.75%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-03 08:50
MyBookie.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -6.86%E -2.72%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -4.81%E -3.19%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 08:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 08:49
ReBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 08:50
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 08:50
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 08:35
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 08:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -7.33%E -4.99%K -15.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 08:55
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.44%E -3.85%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 08:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.50%EV -14.99%E -6.52%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.50%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.97%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 08:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -16.84%E -7.48%K -13.47%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.31%EV -10.49%E -7.38%K -24.97%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-03 08:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.