Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.40
assuming max odds 1.60
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Xavier Musketeers (Local): 40.58%; Indiana Hoosiers (Visit): 59.42%. For Xavier Musketeers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -2.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.61%E -1.09%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-25 16:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.64%E -1.98%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-25 16:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -4.64%E -1.98%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -8.49%E -5.51%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-25 16:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -4.64%E -1.98%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -8.49%E -5.51%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-25 16:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -4.64%E -1.98%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -8.49%E -5.51%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-25 16:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -5.86%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-25 17:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -5.86%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-25 17:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.67%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-25 00:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.67%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-25 00:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.67%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-25 03:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.67%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-25 17:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.67%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-25 16:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.70%E -3.87%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-25 02:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.70%E -3.87%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-25 02:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.70%E -3.87%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-25 03:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.73%E -4.88%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-25 17:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.