Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Virginia Mountaineers v Kansas St Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Virginia Mountaineers (Local)

Prediction 61.37%1.63fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -7.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.36%61.48%61.54%63.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.531.531.5667.57%65.50%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas St Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 38.63%2.59fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.583%
Kelly -0.959%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.72%38.52%38.46%39.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.362.432.402.5542.37%41.15%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Virginia Mountaineers (Local): 61.37%; Kansas St Wildcats (Visit): 38.63%. For Kansas St Wildcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.27%E -2.74%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.28%E -3.03%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-01 17:30
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.27%E -2.74%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.28%E -3.03%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-01 18:40
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.36%EV -4.88%E -3.15%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.64%EV -8.83%E -3.74%K -6.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 19:09
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.49%E -3.57%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.28%E -3.03%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-01 17:28
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.49%E -0.583%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-01 17:45
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.35%E -2.18%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 18:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.17%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.83%EV -6.89%E -2.86%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 18:49
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.05%E -3.38%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.05%E -3.38%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 17:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.05%E -3.38%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 17:49
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.05%E -3.38%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 18:14
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.05%E -3.38%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 18:15
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.11%E -3.99%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.05%E -3.38%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 18:14
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.72%E -4.42%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -4.19%E -1.69%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-01 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -7.95%E -5.30%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -2.26%E -0.893%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 17:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -7.95%E -5.30%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -2.26%E -0.893%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 17:44
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.95%E -5.30%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.28%E -3.03%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-01 18:45
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -9.18%E -6.20%K -19.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -1.49%E -0.583%K -0.959%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%2.8%2026-05-01 22:09