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West Virginia Mountaineers v Houston Cougars

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Virginia Mountaineers (Local)

Prediction 78.43%1.27fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -19.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.21%78.47%78.48%82.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.201.201.2287.72%83.66%83.33%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Cougars (Visit)

Prediction 21.57%4.64fair odd
EV +14.31%
Edge +2.70%
Kelly +3.33%
Growth +0.476%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.70%21.53%21.52%22.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.414.355.3024.39%22.70%22.99%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Virginia Mountaineers (Local): 78.43%; Houston Cougars (Visit): 21.57%. For Houston Cougars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -10.59%E -9.29%K -75.63%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV +14.31%E +2.70%K +3.33%G +0.476%6.6%2026-04-17 13:59
FanDuel🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -6.67%E -5.60%K -35.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -0.785%E -0.171%K -0.218%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 11:48
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.88%E -4.90%K -29.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.94%E -0.654%K -0.841%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 14:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.88%E -4.90%K -29.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.94%E -0.654%K -0.841%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 14:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.88%E -4.90%K -29.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.94%E -0.654%K -0.841%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 14:19
Caesars🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.31%E -3.54%K -19.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -5.10%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-17 14:19
1xBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -6.67%E -5.60%K -35.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -5.10%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 17:09
theScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.45%E -6.31%K -41.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -5.10%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 11:49
BetRivers🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -7.45%E -6.31%K -41.39%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -6.18%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 16:19
Bally Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -7.45%E -6.31%K -41.39%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -6.18%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 16:19
betPARX🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -7.45%E -6.31%K -41.39%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -6.18%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 16:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.92%EV -5.10%E -4.21%K -24.28%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.08%EV -7.90%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 14:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.92%EV -5.10%E -4.21%K -24.28%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.08%EV -7.90%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 14:19
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.10%E -4.21%K -24.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -8.33%E -1.96%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 03:57
BetMGM🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.10%E -4.21%K -24.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -8.33%E -1.96%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 12:24
BetUS🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.10%E -4.21%K -24.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -11.57%E -2.82%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 14:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.10%E -4.21%K -24.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -11.57%E -2.82%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.19I 84.03%NM 79.48%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.52%5.7%2026-04-17 22:20