Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Huskies v Michigan St Spartans

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Huskies (Local)

Prediction 53.41%1.87fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.52%53.05%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.741.8359.88%57.40%57.47%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan St Spartans (Visit)

Prediction 46.59%2.15fair odd
EV +2.50%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +2.08%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%46.48%46.95%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.032.012.2052.36%49.33%49.75%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Huskies (Local): 53.41%; Michigan St Spartans (Visit): 46.59%. For Michigan St Spartans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -10.81%E -6.47%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +2.50%E +1.14%K +2.08%G +0.052%5.3%2026-04-19 01:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -10.81%E -6.47%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV +1.10%E +0.508%K +0.942%G +0.010%6.0%2026-04-19 01:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -10.81%E -6.47%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV +1.10%E +0.508%K +0.942%G +0.010%6.0%2026-04-19 01:19
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.07%E -4.06%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 01:20
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.14%E -4.73%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -5.89%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 21:09
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.14%E -4.73%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -5.89%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 21:10
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.14%E -4.73%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -5.89%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 21:10
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.47%E -3.09%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 21:15
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.47%E -3.09%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 13:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -6.00%E -3.41%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -7.28%E -3.66%K -7.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 21:19
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -4.93%E -2.77%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -8.22%E -4.17%K -8.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 23:10
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.07%E -4.06%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.15%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 21:09
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.26%E -1.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.01%E -5.77%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 02:40
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.26%E -1.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.01%E -5.77%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 04:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.81I 55.25%NM 50.95%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%8.4%2026-04-19 01:35