Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virginia Cavaliers v Virginia Tech Hokies

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virginia Cavaliers (Local)

Prediction 82.31%1.21fair odd

EV -3.70%

Edge -3.16%

Kelly -21.77%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.14%82.49%82.03%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.111.141.141.1790.09%88.00%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit)

Prediction 17.69%5.65fair odd

EV +6.16%

Edge +1.03%

Kelly +1.23%

Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.73%17.51%17.97%18.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.955.335.276.0020.20%18.75%18.98%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virginia Cavaliers (Local): 82.31%; Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit): 17.69%. For Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.82%E -6.98%K -65.14%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +6.16%E +1.03%K +1.23%G +0.076%	6.0%	2026-03-15 16:40
theScore Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -8.64%E -7.78%K -78.54%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV +1.74%E +0.302%K +0.366%G +0.006%	7.5%	2026-03-15 16:40
888sport🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.17%E -5.41%K -44.07%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.69%E -0.488%K -0.597%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-15 15:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.17%E -5.41%K -44.07%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.69%E -0.488%K -0.597%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-15 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.17%E -5.41%K -44.07%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.69%E -0.488%K -0.597%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-15 15:05
BetRivers🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.82%E -6.98%K -65.14%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -2.69%E -0.488%K -0.597%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-15 16:40
betPARX🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.82%E -6.98%K -65.14%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -2.69%E -0.488%K -0.597%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-15 16:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.82%E -6.98%K -65.14%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -2.69%E -0.488%K -0.597%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-15 16:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -7.82%E -6.98%K -65.14%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -4.46%E -0.825%K -1.01%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-15 16:50
1xBet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.22%EV -6.17%E -5.41%K -44.07%G +0.000%	5.27I 18.98%NM 17.78%EV -6.76%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-15 16:50
BetMGM🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.35%E -4.65%K -35.65%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.11%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-15 15:00
Bovada🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.17%E -5.41%K -44.07%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.11%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-15 00:09
Caesars🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.70%E -3.16%K -21.77%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -7.99%E -1.54%K -1.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-15 16:45
DraftKings🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.35%E -4.65%K -35.65%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -7.99%E -1.54%K -1.90%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-15 16:45
BetUS🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -5.35%E -4.65%K -35.65%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -9.76%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-15 16:35
Betway🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.82%E -6.98%K -65.14%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -11.53%E -2.31%K -2.88%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-03-15 15:50
LowVig.ag🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.14%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.28%G +0.000%	4.99I 20.04%NM 18.86%EV -11.71%E -2.35%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-15 11:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.14%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.28%G +0.000%	4.99I 20.04%NM 18.86%EV -11.71%E -2.35%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-15 11:30
Fliff🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.55%EV -7.82%E -6.98%K -65.14%G +0.000%	4.95I 20.20%NM 18.45%EV -12.42%E -2.51%K -3.14%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-03-15 16:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.04%	5.95I 16.81%NM 15.96%	5.3%	2026-03-15 16:45