Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virginia Cavaliers v VCU Rams

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virginia Cavaliers (Local)

Prediction 78.65%1.27fair odd

EV -2.47%

Edge -1.99%

Kelly -10.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.34%78.51%78.90%80.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.181.201.201.2484.75%83.33%83.33%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VCU Rams (Visit)

Prediction 21.35%4.68fair odd

EV +1.41%

Edge +0.296%

Kelly +0.375%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.90%21.49%21.10%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.904.304.254.7525.64%23.28%23.53%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virginia Cavaliers (Local): 78.65%; VCU Rams (Visit): 21.35%. For VCU Rams (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -7.19%E -6.09%K -39.95%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +1.41%E +0.296%K +0.375%G +0.005%	5.8%	2026-02-28 17:49
FanDuel🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -6.40%E -5.38%K -33.71%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -1.80%E -0.391%K -0.499%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-02-28 17:49
888sport🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.09%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.93%E -0.874%K -1.12%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-02-28 15:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.09%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.93%E -0.874%K -1.12%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-02-28 15:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.09%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.93%E -0.874%K -1.12%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-02-28 15:40
theScore Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.19%E -6.09%K -39.95%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.07%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-02-28 17:49
Bovada🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.39%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -12.47%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-28 13:53
BetRivers🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.09%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -12.47%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-28 15:30
betPARX🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.09%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -12.47%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-28 15:30
Bally Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.09%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -12.47%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-28 15:30
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.47%E -1.99%K -10.30%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -14.61%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-02-28 02:19
1xBet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 76.62%EV -6.40%E -5.38%K -33.71%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -16.74%E -4.29%K -5.77%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-02-28 16:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.