Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vanderbilt Commodores v Troy Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vanderbilt Commodores (Local)

Prediction 75.93%1.32fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -3.44%
Kelly -16.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.68%75.77%76.25%77.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.231.241.2682.64%81.07%80.65%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Troy Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 24.07%4.15fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.417%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.93%24.23%23.75%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.954.1028.57%25.76%25.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vanderbilt Commodores (Local): 75.93%; Troy Trojans (Visit): 24.07%. For Troy Trojans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -1.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -4.33%E -3.44%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -8.52%E -2.24%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 21:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.09%E -4.07%K -20.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.33%E -3.70%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 21:00
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.09%E -4.07%K -20.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -15.74%E -4.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-04 20:59
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -3.70%E -0.925%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-04 21:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.75%EV -4.18%E -1.05%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 20:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.75%EV -4.18%E -1.05%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 21:00
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -7.31%E -1.90%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 20:59
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.52%E -2.24%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 21:00
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.30%EV -5.85%E -4.72%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.70%EV -9.00%E -2.38%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-04 20:49
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.37%E -6.04%K -33.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -1.29%E -0.316%K -0.417%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 20:59
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.37%E -6.04%K -33.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -1.29%E -0.316%K -0.417%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 20:59
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -8.13%E -6.72%K -38.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -4.91%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-04 21:00
betPARX🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -8.13%E -6.72%K -38.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -4.91%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-04 21:00
Bally Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -8.13%E -6.72%K -38.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -4.91%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-04 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.