Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UTSA Roadrunners v East Carolina Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

52%

48%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UTSA Roadrunners (Local)

Prediction 51.80%1.93fair odd

EV -3.66%

Edge -1.97%

Kelly -4.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.40%52.10%51.53%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.691.801.811.8659.17%55.69%55.10%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

East Carolina Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 48.20%2.07fair odd

EV +3.64%

Edge +1.69%

Kelly +3.16%

Growth +0.115%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.01%47.90%48.47%49.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.881.961.952.1553.19%50.89%51.28%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UTSA Roadrunners (Local): 51.80%; East Carolina Pirates (Visit): 48.20%. For East Carolina Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetUS🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -12.46%E -7.37%K -18.06%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV +3.64%E +1.69%K +3.16%G +0.115%	5.7%	2026-05-23 13:09
LowVig.ag🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -11.43%E -6.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV +0.744%E +0.356%K +0.682%G +0.005%	6.3%	2026-05-23 13:49
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -11.43%E -6.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV +0.744%E +0.356%K +0.682%G +0.005%	6.3%	2026-05-23 13:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -8.32%E -4.70%K -10.80%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -3.59%E -1.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-23 13:39
1xBet🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.66%E -1.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.52%E -2.82%K -5.75%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-23 13:20
Caesars🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.76%E -3.76%K -8.46%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.00%E -3.08%K -6.32%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-23 13:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.76%E -3.76%K -8.46%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.00%E -3.08%K -6.32%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-23 13:48
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -8.84%E -5.02%K -11.63%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -6.00%E -3.08%K -6.32%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-23 13:18
DraftKings🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.21%E -2.85%K -6.28%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.93%E -4.15%K -8.72%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-23 12:40
BetMGM🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.21%E -2.85%K -6.28%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.93%E -4.15%K -8.72%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-23 12:49
Bovada🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.21%E -2.85%K -6.28%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.93%E -4.15%K -8.72%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-23 13:28
BetRivers🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -4.17%E -2.26%K -4.91%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -9.38%E -4.99%K -10.66%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-23 13:19
Bally Bet🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -4.17%E -2.26%K -4.91%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -9.38%E -4.99%K -10.66%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-23 13:19
betPARX🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -4.17%E -2.26%K -4.91%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -9.38%E -4.99%K -10.66%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-23 13:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.57I 63.69%NM 55.01%	1.92I 52.08%NM 44.99%	15.8%	2026-05-23 13:30