Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UT-Arlington Mavericks v Dallas Baptist Patriots

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UT-Arlington Mavericks (Local)

Prediction 25.27%3.96fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.504%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.12%25.24%25.28%27.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.383.673.683.9029.59%27.26%27.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dallas Baptist Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 74.73%1.34fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -4.01%
Kelly -18.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.00%74.76%74.72%75.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.251.251.2780.65%79.72%80.00%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UT-Arlington Mavericks (Local): 25.27%; Dallas Baptist Patriots (Visit): 74.73%. For UT-Arlington Mavericks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -1.46%E -0.374%K -0.504%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -7.33%E -5.91%K -30.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-24 17:30
BetMGM🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-24 17:25
theScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -7.33%E -5.91%K -30.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-24 17:30
888sport🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-24 08:02
888sport (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-24 08:02
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-24 08:02
DraftKings🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.09%E -4.01%K -18.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-24 04:49
Bovada🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.84%E -4.63%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-24 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 25.76%EV -7.52%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.24%EV -5.09%E -4.01%K -18.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-24 23:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 25.76%EV -7.52%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.24%EV -5.09%E -4.01%K -18.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-24 23:55
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-24 23:15
Bally Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-24 23:14
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-24 23:14
BetUS🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.40%EV -10.56%E -2.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.60%EV -5.09%E -4.01%K -18.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-24 18:00
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.57%E -3.30%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 14:14
1xBet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 27.00%EV -14.60%E -4.32%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.00%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-24 23:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.