Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

USC Trojans v San Diego St Aztecs

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 01:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

84%

16%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

USC Trojans (Local)

Prediction 84.09%1.19fair odd

EV -4.97%

Edge -4.40%

Kelly -38.26%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

82.70%84.30%84.04%85.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.091.111.111.1391.74%89.94%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego St Aztecs (Visit)

Prediction 15.91%6.29fair odd

EV +7.36%

Edge +1.09%

Kelly +1.28%

Growth +0.094%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.12%15.70%15.96%17.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.405.885.726.7518.52%17.00%17.47%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: USC Trojans (Local): 84.09%; San Diego St Aztecs (Visit): 15.91%. For San Diego St Aztecs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -6.66%E -6.00%K -60.50%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +7.36%E +1.09%K +1.28%G +0.094%	4.9%	2026-03-17 19:25
FanDuel🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -7.50%E -6.81%K -74.96%G +0.000%	6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV +4.98%E +0.754%K +0.889%G +0.044%	6.1%	2026-03-18 01:10
BetRivers🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 84.84%EV -8.34%E -7.65%K -92.63%G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -2.98%E -0.488%K -0.584%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-17 18:55
Bally Bet🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 84.84%EV -8.34%E -7.65%K -92.63%G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -2.98%E -0.488%K -0.584%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-17 18:55
betPARX🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 84.84%EV -8.34%E -7.65%K -92.63%G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -2.98%E -0.488%K -0.584%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-17 18:55
1xBet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -6.66%E -6.00%K -60.50%G +0.000%	6.05I 16.53%NM 15.50%EV -3.77%E -0.623%K -0.747%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-18 01:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.50%E -6.81%K -74.96%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -4.57%E -0.761%K -0.913%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-17 18:55
BetMGM🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.97%E -4.40%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.54%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 00:00
DraftKings🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -4.97%E -4.40%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV -9.34%E -1.64%K -1.99%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-16 23:04
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.81%E -5.19%K -48.45%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -9.34%E -1.64%K -1.99%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-17 20:19
LowVig.ag🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.23%EV -4.97%E -4.40%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.61I 17.83%NM 16.77%EV -10.77%E -1.92%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-17 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.23%EV -4.97%E -4.40%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.61I 17.83%NM 16.77%EV -10.77%E -1.92%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-17 17:05
Bovada🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.81%E -5.19%K -48.45%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -10.93%E -1.95%K -2.38%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-17 13:20
Fliff🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -7.50%E -6.81%K -74.96%G +0.000%	5.55I 18.02%NM 16.54%EV -11.72%E -2.11%K -2.58%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-03-17 18:55
Betway🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.66%E -6.00%K -60.50%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -12.52%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-03-17 18:55
BetUS🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -4.97%E -4.40%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -14.11%E -2.61%K -3.21%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-17 17:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.57%	6.58I 15.20%NM 14.43%	5.3%	2026-03-18 00:30