Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

USC Trojans v Michigan St Spartans

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

USC Trojans (Local)

Prediction 79.75%1.25fair odd

EV -2.70%

Edge -2.21%

Kelly -12.27%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.36%80.04%79.93%83.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.131.181.181.2288.50%84.86%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan St Spartans (Visit)

Prediction 20.25%4.94fair odd

EV +13.58%

Edge +2.42%

Kelly +2.95%

Growth +0.400%

assuming max odds 5.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.77%19.96%20.07%22.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.104.684.505.6124.39%21.38%22.22%17.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: USC Trojans (Local): 79.75%; Michigan St Spartans (Visit): 20.25%. For Michigan St Spartans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.94. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.23%EV -9.88%E -8.74%K -75.98%G +0.000%	5.61I 17.83%NM 16.77%EV +13.58%E +2.42%K +2.95%G +0.400%	6.3%	2026-05-22 13:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.23%EV -9.88%E -8.74%K -75.98%G +0.000%	5.61I 17.83%NM 16.77%EV +13.58%E +2.42%K +2.95%G +0.400%	6.3%	2026-05-22 13:10
Caesars🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -8.28%E -7.20%K -55.22%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +11.35%E +2.06%K +2.52%G +0.286%	5.1%	2026-05-22 13:30
BetUS🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -9.88%E -8.74%K -75.98%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV +9.33%E +1.73%K +2.12%G +0.198%	7.0%	2026-05-22 13:10
BetMGM🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.69%E -5.72%K -39.34%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -3.83%E -0.807%K -1.02%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-22 13:20
Bovada🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.69%E -5.72%K -39.34%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -3.83%E -0.807%K -1.02%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-22 13:19
DraftKings🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.89%E -4.99%K -32.72%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -4.84%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-22 13:10
FanDuel🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.89%E -4.99%K -32.72%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -4.84%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-22 13:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.69%E -5.72%K -39.34%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -6.87%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-22 10:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.30%E -3.58%K -21.48%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.89%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-22 10:20
888sport🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.30%E -3.58%K -21.48%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.89%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-22 10:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.30%E -3.58%K -21.48%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.89%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-22 10:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.30%E -3.58%K -21.48%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.89%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-22 10:40
1xBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.70%E -2.21%K -12.27%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.92%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-22 09:20
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -5.89%E -4.99%K -32.72%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -12.94%E -3.01%K -3.92%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-22 11:10
Betway🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -5.89%E -4.99%K -32.72%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -13.95%E -3.28%K -4.29%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-22 10:20
BetRivers🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -4.30%E -3.58%K -21.48%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -16.99%E -4.14%K -5.48%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-22 11:20
Bally Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -4.30%E -3.58%K -21.48%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -16.99%E -4.14%K -5.48%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-22 11:19
betPARX🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -4.30%E -3.58%K -21.48%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -16.99%E -4.14%K -5.48%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-22 11:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.70%	4.81I 20.79%NM 19.30%	7.7%	2026-05-22 13:40