The School of College Oddsodds.college
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USC Trojans v Iowa Hawkeyes

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

USC Trojans (Local)

Prediction 78.53%1.27fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -7.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.44%78.02%78.57%79.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.211.201.2584.75%82.93%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Hawkeyes (Visit)

Prediction 21.47%4.66fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.269%
Kelly -0.344%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.55%21.98%21.43%24.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.844.274.404.6026.04%23.41%22.73%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: USC Trojans (Local): 78.53%; Iowa Hawkeyes (Visit): 21.47%. For Iowa Hawkeyes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.60, with an expected value of -1.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -1.84%E -1.47%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -14.12%E -3.53%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -1.84%E -1.47%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.56%EV -17.56%E -4.57%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -1.84%E -1.47%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.56%EV -17.56%E -4.57%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:50
BetUS🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -3.41%E -2.77%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -16.27%E -4.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 16:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -4.98%E -4.11%K -23.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -11.97%E -2.92%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 18:54
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.76%E -4.80%K -28.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.39%E -0.752%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.76%E -4.80%K -28.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.39%E -0.752%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.76%E -4.80%K -28.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.39%E -0.752%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.76%E -4.80%K -28.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.53%E -1.26%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 18:49
BetMGM🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.76%E -4.80%K -28.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.53%E -1.26%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 16:20
FanDuel🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -6.55%E -5.50%K -34.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -1.24%E -0.269%K -0.344%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 18:20
Bovada🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -6.55%E -5.50%K -34.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -5.53%E -1.26%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 14:21
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.55%E -5.50%K -34.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -8.75%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 15:35
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.55%E -5.50%K -34.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -8.75%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 15:35
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.55%E -5.50%K -34.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -8.75%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 15:35
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.33%E -6.22%K -40.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.39%E -0.752%K -0.967%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 17:20
theScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.33%E -6.22%K -40.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -5.53%E -1.26%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.19I 84.03%NM 79.86%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.14%5.2%2026-04-11 20:25