Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UNLV Rebels v San José St Spartans

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UNLV Rebels (Local)

Prediction 66.89%1.50fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -3.04%
Kelly -10.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.54%66.91%66.59%67.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.411.4373.53%71.43%70.92%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San José St Spartans (Visit)

Prediction 33.11%3.02fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.08%33.09%33.41%34.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.722.812.802.9036.76%35.53%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UNLV Rebels (Local): 66.89%; San José St Spartans (Visit): 33.11%. For San José St Spartans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -3.97%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.35%E -3.04%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-27 15:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%EV -4.35%E -3.04%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -7.94%E -2.86%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%EV -4.35%E -3.04%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -7.94%E -2.86%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 18:09
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.54%EV -4.35%E -3.04%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.46%EV -9.93%E -3.65%K -5.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-27 19:10
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.02%E -3.54%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.28%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-26 23:22
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.02%E -3.54%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.28%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-27 23:30
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.70%EV -5.02%E -3.54%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -9.93%E -3.65%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-27 20:50
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.69%E -4.04%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -7.28%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 15:27
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.36%E -4.54%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.97%E -1.37%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 02:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -6.36%E -4.54%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.10%EV -6.29%E -2.22%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-28 00:19
Fliff🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -8.37%E -6.11%K -22.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.94%E -3.25%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-27 20:25
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.04%E -6.64%K -25.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.63%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-27 20:25
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.04%E -6.64%K -25.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.63%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-27 20:25
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.04%E -6.64%K -25.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.63%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-27 20:25
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -9.04%E -6.64%K -25.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-28 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%8.4%2026-03-28 00:55