The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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UNLV Rebels v San Diego St Aztecs

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UNLV Rebels (Local)

Prediction 39.42%2.54fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.09%39.54%39.43%40.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.372.362.4042.55%42.16%42.37%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego St Aztecs (Visit)

Prediction 60.58%1.65fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.60%60.46%60.57%60.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.551.541.6065.36%64.44%64.94%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UNLV Rebels (Local): 39.42%; San Diego St Aztecs (Visit): 60.58%. For San Diego St Aztecs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.60, with an expected value of -3.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.39%E -2.25%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.50%E -3.52%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 04:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.39%E -2.25%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.50%E -3.52%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 18:25
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.39%E -2.25%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.71%E -4.36%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 12:04
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.39%E -2.25%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.71%E -4.36%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 13:10
MyBookie.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -6.18%E -2.60%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.50%E -3.52%K -9.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 16:55
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -6.97%E -2.95%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.07%E -1.92%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-16 17:45
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -7.36%E -3.13%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -3.68%E -2.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 14:50
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.36%E -3.13%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.31%E -4.78%K -13.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 12:50
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.36%E -3.13%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.31%E -4.78%K -13.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:50
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.36%E -3.13%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.31%E -4.78%K -13.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:50
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.36%E -3.13%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.31%E -4.78%K -13.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.