Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UConn Huskies v East Tennessee St Buccaneers

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UConn Huskies (Local)

Prediction 57.14%1.75fair odd

EV -5.71%

Edge -3.46%

Kelly -8.79%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.14%57.14%57.14%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.621.641.651.6561.73%60.98%60.61%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

East Tennessee St Buccaneers (Visit)

Prediction 42.86%2.33fair odd

EV -5.71%

Edge -2.60%

Kelly -4.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.41%42.86%42.86%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.202.202.2045.45%45.45%45.45%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UConn Huskies (Local): 57.14%; East Tennessee St Buccaneers (Visit): 42.86%. For East Tennessee St Buccaneers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -5.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.71%E -3.46%K -8.79%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-01 18:29
BetMGM🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.71%E -3.46%K -8.79%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-01 18:39
Bovada🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.43%E -4.59%K -11.98%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-01 18:33

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%	8.0%	2026-05-01 18:29