Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCLA Bruins v UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCLA Bruins (Local)

Prediction 79.73%1.25fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -3.60%
Kelly -21.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.57%79.71%79.83%80.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.171.2086.96%85.11%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit)

Prediction 20.27%4.93fair odd
EV -0.470%
Edge -0.096%
Kelly -0.120%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.24%20.29%20.17%21.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.654.704.9122.73%21.52%21.28%20.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCLA Bruins (Local): 79.73%; UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit): 20.27%. For UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.91, with an expected value of -0.470%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.33%E -3.60%K -21.63%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -3.71%E -0.782%K -0.990%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-14 16:29
DraftKings🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.33%E -3.60%K -21.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.81%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-13 23:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.33%E -3.60%K -21.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.81%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-14 13:25
Bovada🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -5.12%E -4.30%K -26.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -10.81%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-14 13:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.92%E -5.02%K -32.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 21:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.76%EV -6.72%E -5.74%K -39.51%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.24%EV -0.470%E -0.096%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-15 01:55
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -6.72%E -5.74%K -39.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -0.673%E -0.137%K -0.172%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-14 19:10
1xBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.10%EV -6.72%E -5.74%K -39.51%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 19.90%EV -4.52%E -0.961%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-15 01:10
BetUS🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.72%E -5.74%K -39.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -4.73%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-15 01:55
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.72%E -5.74%K -39.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-14 21:59
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -7.51%E -6.48%K -46.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -4.73%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-14 21:39
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -7.51%E -6.48%K -46.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -4.73%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-14 21:40
Bally Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -7.51%E -6.48%K -46.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -4.73%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-14 21:40
theScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -8.31%E -7.23%K -55.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -2.70%E -0.562%K -0.710%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%5.4%2026-04-15 01:05