Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights v South Florida Bulls

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights (Local)

Prediction 66.85%1.50fair odd

EV -5.74%

Edge -4.07%

Kelly -13.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.75%66.85%66.85%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.401.401.4171.43%71.33%71.43%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Florida Bulls (Visit)

Prediction 33.15%3.02fair odd

EV -3.88%

Edge -1.34%

Kelly -2.04%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.56%33.15%33.15%35.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.592.752.752.9038.61%36.39%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCF Knights (Local): 66.85%; South Florida Bulls (Visit): 33.15%. For South Florida Bulls (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -3.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 64.75%EV -5.74%E -4.07%K -13.99%G +0.000%	2.59I 38.61%NM 35.25%EV -14.15%E -5.46%K -8.90%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-02-28 12:40
FanDuel🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.41%E -4.58%K -16.01%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.88%E -1.34%K -2.04%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-28 08:03
888sport🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.41%E -4.58%K -16.01%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-28 08:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.41%E -4.58%K -16.01%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-28 08:09
888sport (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.41%E -4.58%K -16.01%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-28 08:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.