Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights v LSU Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 20:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

23%

77%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights (Local)

Prediction 22.53%4.44fair odd

EV -0.888%

Edge -0.202%

Kelly -0.261%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.43%22.71%22.43%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.804.124.104.4026.32%24.28%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

LSU Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 77.47%1.29fair odd

EV -3.16%

Edge -2.53%

Kelly -12.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.25%77.29%77.57%78.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.211.201.2583.33%82.82%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCF Knights (Local): 22.53%; LSU Tigers (Visit): 77.47%. For UCF Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.40, with an expected value of -0.888%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -0.888%E -0.202%K -0.261%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -7.03%E -5.86%K -35.15%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-22 20:00
DraftKings🎯	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -4.27%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -6.26%E -5.17%K -29.79%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-02-22 20:30
theScore Bet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.03%E -5.86%K -35.15%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-02-22 19:59
BetRivers🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.65%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.03%E -5.86%K -35.15%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-22 20:00
betPARX🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.65%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.03%E -5.86%K -35.15%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-22 20:00
Bally Bet🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.65%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.03%E -5.86%K -35.15%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-02-22 20:00
Betway🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.03%E -5.86%K -35.15%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-02-22 19:59
BetMGM🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -14.40%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.16%E -2.53%K -12.63%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-02-22 20:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.