Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights v Kansas St Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights (Local)

Prediction 65.32%1.53fair odd

EV +0.600%

Edge +0.389%

Kelly +1.11%

Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.98%65.05%65.06%66.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.451.431.5469.93%68.89%69.93%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas St Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 34.68%2.88fair odd

EV -2.91%

Edge -1.04%

Kelly -1.62%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.81%34.95%34.94%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.512.672.672.8039.84%37.42%37.38%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCF Knights (Local): 65.32%; Kansas St Wildcats (Visit): 34.68%. For UCF Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.600%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV +0.600%E +0.389%K +1.11%G +0.007%	2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -12.96%E -5.17%K -8.59%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-14 21:20
Caesars🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -0.053%E -0.035%K -0.101%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -11.58%E -4.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-14 17:49
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.28%E -3.64%K -11.73%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.38%E -2.36%K -3.75%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-14 17:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.28%E -3.64%K -11.73%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.38%E -2.36%K -3.75%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-14 17:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.93%E -4.12%K -13.48%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.38%E -2.36%K -3.75%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-14 17:44
BetMGM🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.59%E -4.61%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.91%E -1.04%K -1.62%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-14 18:15
FanDuel🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -6.59%E -4.61%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -4.30%E -1.56%K -2.44%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-14 17:44
DraftKings🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.59%E -4.61%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.64%E -1.69%K -2.65%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-14 16:55
BetRivers🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.59%E -4.61%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.11%E -3.06%K -4.92%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-14 17:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.59%E -4.61%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.11%E -3.06%K -4.92%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-14 17:40
betPARX🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.59%E -4.61%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.11%E -3.06%K -4.92%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-14 17:40
Betway🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.59%E -4.61%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.11%E -3.06%K -4.92%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-14 17:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.